The Kremlin’s Undeclared War

Will the Kremlin to make the first volley in an undeclared war with the United States? The answer is Washington trying to Russian interference in the presidential campaign in the US? Can the information war in Moscow to become a cybernetic war? Is Will Vladimir Putin and his entourage object of the US response?

These and other questions we are discussing with a former employee of the US military intelligence Joel Harding , a professor at the University of Houston Forbes magazine columnist Paul Gregory and the head of the American firm HWA Gregory Grushko .

Speculation that Russia was behind the theft of e-mails of the National Committee of the Democratic Party, which appeared on the eve of the Congress of Democrats on the website of Wikileaks , for the first time made the American commentators talk about the war. About the war against Washington, initiated by Moscow. In the interpretation of the commentator of the newspaper The Wall Street Journal Krovitsa Gordon is the “information war”, in terms of the publication Politico, is “political war” in the style of “cold war”, but with the use of modern tools of warfare. The general opinion of American experts, stuffing dirt on the Democratic Party leadership, from which it followed that it was discussing ways to discredit in the eyes of voters Bernie Sanders, rival Hillary Clinton in the fight for the presidential nomination, was the attempt of foreign interference in the electoral campaign on the side of Donald Trump. First public frank attempt of such intervention.

Specialist in cybertechnology, former military intelligence officer Joel Harding sees in this episode more than a fragment of the information war, the Kremlin announced the United States. He believes that if the breaking of the Democratic Party of computers, as well as the alleged theft of email correspondence Hillary Clinton in her when he was Secretary of State has been carried out with the knowledge of the Russian special services, then in case of unfavorable development of the situation may lead to open cyber war between the US and Russia, as a result of which may be affected many. While in Washington expect the FBI investigation results to determine who was behind the theft and publication of e-mails of the Democratic Party leadership. But, according to Harding, signs of involvement of Moscow in this operation are obvious.

– At first glance, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service is trying to interfere in the American election campaign – says Joel Harding . – It is, at least, coordinated the transfer of the stolen e-mails Wikileaks and its appearance in the public domain on the Internet just before the start of the Democratic Party convention. On the involvement of the Russian special services to this story, and indirectly indicates the fact that stuffing that is, from the perspective of, so to speak, ordinary hackers would have had little meaning. In this case, its purpose, I think, is not so much a blow to Hillary Clinton, is primarily an attempt to undermine the US election process, to sow doubts about his democratic, to bring chaos. This is what, in the opinion of the Russian leadership, meets Russia’s national interests.

– It is known that the FBI is investigating this intrusion into computers Democratic Party. How big are the chances of US experts find the hackers?

– Western experts, and many Western governments believe that the Kremlin is waging against the West information propaganda war by throwing her a lot of money. The content of the TV channel Russia the Today , for example, Moscow costs hundreds of millions of dollars. Throwing dirt on the Democratic Party leadership, which allegedly supported Clinton in the primary campaign, became the first known Kremlin attempt to interfere in the political process in the United States. Many US politicians have expressed concern about these actions, but, objectively speaking, we can talk about the success of advocacy efforts of Moscow?

– Russian information war primarily directed not against the West, it is the main object of the Russians.Its main purpose – to prevent “color revolutions in Russia.” The secondary task – to undermine the alliance of Western states, attempts to undermine normal political process, inspiring citizens to doubt the objectivity of the Western media. The Kremlin clearly has succeeded in performing the first task. Suffice it to recall the great information operations to ensure the annexation of Crimea.In regard to the impact on public opinion in other countries, these efforts seem to have failed. In August last year, the results of a public opinion poll, from which it was made public that the citizens of only three countries – Ghana, Vietnam and China – have a positive attitude to Russia. All other – negative. Why did they continue to do it? Most likely, because that is the only thing that can engage people who concentrate in their hands the power in Russia, this is what they were taught and what they were doing all my life, and they will continue this business without burdening yourself with questions. If we look at the consequences of stuffing information, seemingly discrediting Hillary Clinton, its effect has been minimal. Yes, they were forced to resign a few functionaries of the Democratic Party, but after the Party Congress Clinton’s ratings went up. I explain it by the fact that Americans are living in a free information space, are well aware that they are subject to the impact of propaganda on the part of both parties. Unlike the Russians, they have access to a variety of information sources, including independent of the Democrats and Republicans. And they form their opinion based on analysis of a variety of facts and opinions. I think that at the disposal of the Russian special services, is likely to have unpleasant for both presidential candidates documents. We can assume that they will try to organize in October, another action to discredit Hillary Clinton, the so-called October Surprise. But it is very difficult to imagine that they have something sensational that could undermine the chances of a candidate like Clinton. In the end, even sharply critical words of FBI director in the Clinton address, which enjoyed a private email address to conduct official correspondence when he was secretary of state, did not prevent her in the fight for the nomination. I doubt that Russia has something that can undermine both candidates.

– The answer to this invasion? For example, columnist WSJ Gordon Krovitts writes that as soon as Russia announced the US cyber war, the United States should respond in kind. For example, to publish information about secret accounts of Vladimir Putin, to use the extracted information in this way for the imposition of sanctions against the Kremlin officials?

– In 1991, when the United States is preparing for “Operation Desert Storm” to liberate Kuwait, occupied Iraq, the White House considering a proposal to freeze all bank accounts of the Iraqi leadership, including Saddam Hussein.It was possible to make through the SWIFT system by which international financial transactions are made. From this idea, then abandoned, so as not to undermine the stability of the international financial system. The problem is that any cyber attack is fraught with unpredictable consequences, since we do not know what will be the response of the enemy. It is understood that the electronic opposition is non-stop, but no government admits its involvement in these operations. Yes, we could divert information about, say, Vladimir Putin, the financial assets and its surroundings, there is no doubt that the American authorities have full information about his property and bank accounts, but there is a question about their authenticity. I heard that Putin’s state may reach $ 200 billion. But how to prove that it was his money? Washington should in this case publicly take responsibility for the fact that American experts illegally hacked into the account of the Russian president? This will open up a Pandora’s box. It is a jump into the unknown.

– Well, if there are countermeasures, whether it is possible to hide behind these attacks?

– It depends on how perfect the tools used by hackers. There are programs that allow you to fairly quickly identify attacks on computer networks and computers, making it easy to put them back. There are programs that serve as a beacon that allows to go on the trail of the stolen materials. These materials are marked in a special way and make themselves known when they appear on other servers. That is, they immediately point to the thief. Moreover, it is possible, they say, undermine the very important information for you. If it is stolen, then you can use it to disable the server or a computer hacker. But this confrontation is extremely dangerous in cyberspace. We do not know what will happen if we struck a blow for the Russian computer networks or, for example, as a warning to turn off the electricity in Moscow. Most likely, Russia will try to answer the same. And American law enforcement services are well aware of how vulnerable we are to these attacks. For them it is a nightmare scenario.

– Grushko Gregory, whether from your point of view, the kidnapping of correspondence Democratic Party attack on the United States?

– If the United States officially opened directly said that the theft, break-mail, servers, and so on was exactly one hundred percent made by Russian special services, then it could be said – says Gregory Grushko . – For a variety of reasons why they do not advertise, but hinted that a high degree of certainty can be said that the fault lies with the Russian special services.

– But on the other hand, and representatives of the Democratic Party, and virtually all leading American media, citing US intelligence agencies say with certainty that it’s still a cyber attack from Russia. If so, what should be the answer to your point of view, Paul Gregory?

– I have no answer to that question, – says Paul Gregory . – It is clear that what has happened – a great bonus for the Democratic Party. These reports were very negative about the Democratic Party, which could hurt Hillary Clinton. Because of noise around this cyber attacks they can benefit, now that everyone thinks, whether it was Russian or not, and do not think about what was the content of these emails. That’s why our conversation in favor of the Democratic Party.This is a political issue, it’s not a question of war and peace.

– Political in the sense that the stuffing of this information may affect the course of political events in the United States? Foreign intervention in order to support Trump?

– The intention was to help Trump, the result may be to help Hillary Clinton.Here is my thesis.

– Gregory, from your perspective, what is the purpose of this invasion?

– Let’s start with the fact that, if it is really an invasion of a foreign power in the political electoral process in the United States – it is scandalous, it shows a relative importance of these elections for the Russian government, or to the full extent of their arrogance and sense of impunity. What could be the answer? An interesting answer was to steal all the information about where the people closest to Putin, keep all of its assets, money and so on.

– The proposal advocates a columnist Gordon Krovits DRC, but my companion, a former US intelligence officer, said that such a reaction is fraught with unpredictable Moscow’s response, the case may go to an open cyber war with Russia with very unpleasant consequences for everyone.

– I do not think that cyber war, but a certain aspect of a hybrid war is already happening, to get involved over there, somehow all this is difficult to imagine.Because no one shows any evidence. And even when the evidence is, we know, the Kremlin has a habit of saying: No, I do not, and the horse is not mine.Despite the fact that the evidence can be one hundred per cent, making big eyes and say: No, you have not proved. So what is the answer, whether it is whether the answer would be linked somehow to the general United States diplomacy, is very difficult to imagine. It is important to note the following: no matter on which side of the Russian special services were – Republicans, Democrats or the Greens, it is important that it was taken at all. It is known that in the Soviet era offers such operations exist, but they are always rejected by the Politburo, because it is considered particularly risky for international relations.

– Still, as I recently told a former KGB general Oleg Kalugin, who led such operations, Moscow was trying to influence the political process in the United States, she published the magazine, maintained marginal party, he even seems to have himself created a fictional game. But all this, of course, looks childish effort compared with trying to throw dirt on the leading US presidential candidates. Paul Gregory, what are the Kremlin’s goal, if it is for an injection of this, he is able to achieve them?

– The objectives are as follows: if we take the example of the National Committee to discredit the Democratic Party, the two benefits from this. First – they were going to help Trump. Another goal, which I wrote a little article that now Putin can tell the Russians: in the West, the elections are not clean, unfair. If they criticize our elections in September, you can not blame us because the situation is even worse in America. America has always said that they are better, but they are actually worse. From this great benefit to Putin. If I’d had Putin, I would say: why do they criticize us, they are worse than in America.

– Some experts believe that these efforts are aimed at further undermining the confidence of Americans to their own political process?

– It’s already happened without Russia, – says Paul Gregory. – I think that went distrust of the process without Russia. This slogan Trump: Elite is all about, and the common people does not solve anything. This happened without Russia.

– Gregory Grushko, your version of motivations actions of Moscow?

– Obviously, the goal of this endeavor was to help Trump. Most likely, this means that they believe that if Trump will be the president, it will give them opportunities that they still did not have. That is, when Donald Trump says that before you help an ally in NATO, we will check, paid whether they are membership fees, it basically says Russia, at least I think so, you can freely attack any Estonia and we will not defend it. It is possible that it is a goal of at least this intervention. It is possible that the aim is to show the possibilities, to say that you think, we’re not cool? Here we have steep, fingers like a fan. This is also possible. I would not get hung, for what purposes do they do it – this is the work of intelligence agencies. It is important that if indeed they did, it’s a scandalous precedent that can not be ignored and without a definite answer.

– Paul, by the way, you’re in his article in the journal Forbes raises the question of what would happen if the disposal of Russia, is suspected by many, is a much greater amount of correspondence that if this correspondence will be used to organize the so-called October surprise, that is to throw some incriminating evidence in a matter of weeks before the election? Do you think that, in principle, Russia can exert any real influence on the course of elections in the United States?

– Yes. The main question to which we do not have the answer: whether the Kremlin’s so-called private correspondence Hillary Clinton. It destroyed all these documents, they do not exist in America and the West. In my opinion and in the opinion of our intelligence agencies, the Kremlin has 30 thousand of these e-mails, which destroyed Clinton. This is a question. Because in the documents that we have seen, there is little information about the Clinton Foundation and so on. There is even the possibility of blackmail Hillary Clinton as president. Quite possibly, the Kremlin keeps these documents in case Clinton will be president, and possible blackmail. The radical idea, but it is possible.

– I talked to different users, they just said that about Clinton knows everything so much that there is hardly any information that can dramatically change the opinion of the Americans about it.

– I do not agree with this thesis.

– Gregory, and from your point of view, may be available in Putin’s what we do not suspect that may be a really great instrument of pressure on either Clinton or voters before the election?

– Let’s start with the fact that when, at the time of the Soviet Union practiced such strenuous exercise, there were stuffing a variety of information with the aim to destabilize the society or politics, it has long been established that such stuffing from the Soviet Union and Russia always include a certain number of misinformation . It’s like a book, whose cover normal, proper, and inside can be any nonsense. I do not know what they have, what he does not, but it is possible and easy to say, even if there is stuffing in October or ever was, that a certain portion of the stuffing – is simply false. It is time. Two: the theory of the possibility of blackmail Hillary Clinton or anyone else. If Russia has really so explosive materials against US presidential candidate, I think it should be expected that the United States has no less explosive materials on the Russian leadership. And before you start this open blackmail of war, the Russian government should think that they know about them in the West, and maybe that’s all stopped. But most importantly, I would like to say the following, that the stuffing through Wikileaks, we will say frankly that the reputation of Wikileaks from the time of Snowden, of course, it is popular in certain extreme left-wing circles, but otherwise we know that these weapons FSB that this scandalously lime operation. Only the fact that they show only one side, that is, they might throw something that comes from Russia against the United States.Imagine what would happen if the Wikileaks tried to publish this kind of information about Russia. Now it is only concerned with Alexei Navalny in Russia. Lord, he is persecuted to such an extent that his words have no spread, except for a certain group of people in Moscow and St. Petersburg.I think that the attempt of the October surprise may be, but its effectiveness is very limited, because the reputation of these sources have so stained that they believe will be a few.

– Paul Gregory, Vladimir Putin, of course, can indulge their vanity in Moscow for the first time since the Soviet Union has become a significant factor in the US presidential campaign, it may take this story to influence the Russians, but, by and large, if it is skillfully playing this card, if he really is behind this story and in the end, the Kremlin will play themselves in harm by intervening in the American election campaign? How do you think?

– It is difficult to answer. Gregory asked a very interesting question: if there is some kind of Equilibrium. If you have blackmailing material I have. The main information that we have – it is Putin and Putin’s inner circle of bank accounts. Maybe this is the Equilibrium, where each side is not able to use their materials.

– And if you look at it from a somewhat different angle, from the point of view of Russia’s image abroad and in America? A year ago, according to a survey of the American Sociological Center of the Pew Research, , only three countries, more than half the population had a positive attitude towards Russia. In America, by the way, this view is held by 22 percent of respondents. We can assume that all of this even more tarnished Putin and the Kremlin’s reputation in the West?

– Yes, I think because of this action, Russia has lost much of its reputation.Russia also lost a lot of reputation with these Olympic scandals. Putin must pay for the loss of reputation. There is a risk for Putin in these actions.

– Gregory Grushko, and still can, Vladimir Putin, the game still is not as hopeless?

– A small detail: the journalists-researchers who worked on the famous factory trolls in Olgino in St. Pete, recently claimed that some Russian trolls suddenly changed its shell and began to act as the American public, the American participants in the discussions on Internet forums and in the “Twitter “in particular, protecting and representing Donald Trump’s interests. It is also very not so much scandalous as unusual. From my point of view, very foolish. If you think, for what it’s done? Often we hear experts talk about some strategic goals of Putin, his inner circle, and so on, I do, to be honest, I do not believe. I believe that Putin believes only two certain values – money and power. Force he knocks out the money, and the money to help him buy the security forces. Kremlin – is a specific mafia group. Everything that is done, is done in order to extend his power to protect his power, and then transmit the next generation, the children, grandchildren, and so on. Therefore, the attack, if it really was an attack on the Democratic Party, aims to make Donald Trump’s next president. Firstly, it is very bad says Donald Trump if he’s favorite Russia. Secondly, it shows some short-sightedness of the Russian leadership, if they believe that this will be enough to deploy such a large political process in the United States.

Source: http://www.svoboda.org/content/usa-today-dnc-hack-russia/27903530.html