Slowly, deliberately, Russia is moving towards war.
With the ease of a politician, skilled at lying for a living, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has changed his language from
Russia does not have — and cannot have — any plans to invade the southeastern regions of Ukraine.
to
If we are attacked, we would certainly respond. If our interests, our legitimate interests, the interests of Russians have been attacked directly, like they were in South Ossetia for example, I do not see any other way but to respond in accordance with international law. Russian citizens being attacked is an attack against the Russian Federation.
In the space of a little bit over one month, Russia has changed. Russia is now almost challenging Ukraine, NATO, the EU and the US, for a reason, any reason, to invade Ukraine.
Never mind that just last night Russian planes flew into the sovereign air space of Ukraine seven times, a clear act of provocation. Never mind that they are holding an OSCE observer team hostage. Never mind proof has been made showing the militants in Sloviansk and nine other Ukraine cities are being directed by the Russian military. Never mind that Russia has not made one step to de-escalating the situation in Ukraine, as they agreed to in the Geneva agreement, four party talks. Never mind that Russia has now stopped all talks with the American White House.
In two days the G7 will meet and take the next step of more extreme sanctions against Russia. These steps will be punitive and should cause greater pain in Russia.
The biggest problems are long term. Regardless, if Russia attacks Ukraine or not, it will be year, decades, before anyone trusts the Russians again. Russia is considering converting to a Rouble based market, it will probably not succeed and they would not be competitive, globally. More Russian people, more Russian businesses and more Russian government entities will be directly affected by stronger sanctions.
This does not stop the EU from trying to trade with them, probably illegally, but there will always be an extra few steps, it will always be illegal. Russia is trying to set up a barter economic agreement with other countries, that will be very difficult, at best and will give them none of the hard currency Russia desires.
I wonder if Level 3 sanctions include freezing Putin’s assets?
Filed under: Information operations, Russia Tagged: sanctions
