Putin’s Catch 22

by Pascale Siegel

In an interview to TASS Sunday, Vladimir Putin dismissed the idea that he failed to anticipate Western retaliatory sanctions and boasted that he “never takes arbitrary decisions, decisions that may entail consequences I don’t foresee.” He even went further, saying “he had never made any reckless decisions in his nearly 15 years running Russia.”  Such thoughtfulness and integrity should make Putin the envy of the world. Who does not dream of a political leader who never gets things wrong? A political leader who anticipates all the consequences his actions might entail? A political leader who does not act if he cannot foresee all the consequences of his actions?

I can certainly appreciate Putin’s predicament. Ordinary Russians are feeling the pain of Western-imposed sanctions and may well start thinking this is an unnecessary self-inflicted wound. Putin cannot afford to look like he overplayed his hand and miscalculated the repercussions of his actions. Acknowledging as much would damage his image and standing among his voter base. It would also wet the appetites of potential competitors. No politician in his right mind wants to be in this position.

Yet, portraying himself as the guy so in control that he never miscalculates, Putin paints himself as a cold hearted leader.  If we take him at his word, then he anticipated the harsh Western retaliation, the political ostracism, the economic sanctions, and the resulting economic slowdown that is squishing the livelihood out of his people. He anticipated those consequences and he still went ahead throwing the Russians under the bus for what? his own delusion of grandeur? This is the short tag-line: Putin pursues his policy of grandeur while ordinary Russians racks up the bills and the dead. In the long run, this is not an enviable position.

Are we starting to see Vladimir caught between the anvil and the hammer?