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Ukrainian Approval of Russia’s Leadership Dives Almost 90%

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This is a product of Gallup, about as good as polls and surveys get.  Any hope that Russia has of recovering a relationship is sinking quickly.

by Julie Ray and Neli Esipova

Story Highlights

  • Approval of Russia’s leadership drops from 43% to 5%
  • Approval of EU, U.S. leadership remains flat
  • Few think EU, U.S. would help in conflict with Russia

This article is the first in a weeklong series focusing on the most recent public opinion research data available from Ukraine.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Any kinship Ukrainians used to feel with Moscow’s leadership is gone after Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region in March. Just 5% of Ukrainians interviewed this fall say they approve of Russia’s leadership, down almost 90% from the approval rating of 43% the year before.

Ukrainian Approval of Russia's Leadership Disappears

Gallup’s interviews in Ukraine this year took place in September and October following a ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian separatists in the country’s East. Gallup’s polls in 2014 excluded the Crimea region, which is currently considered occupied territory, and some areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions where security was an issue. The excluded areas account for approximately 10% to 13% of Ukraine’s adult population. Comparisons between the 2013 and 2014 data are based on the same survey coverage areas.

The drastic change in approval is not that surprising given Russia’s backing of pro-Russian separatists and its gas dispute with Ukraine, but it marks a full divorce from Ukrainians’ generally high approval ratings of Russian leadership over the past decade. Importantly, ratings have declined sharply across all of Ukraine — including the country’s typically more Russian-leaning South and East, where 57% approved in 2013 and 12% approve today. In Ukraine’s Central and North and Western regions, current approval is 1% and 2%, respectively.

No Change in Views of U.S., European Union

At the same time that Ukrainians have spurned Russia, they have not fully embraced the West — which has largely sided with them in the conflict. While Ukrainians are more likely to approve of the leadership of the European Union and the U.S. than they are of Russia, their views have not changed significantly over the past year. Further, Ukrainians’ views of leadership of Germany, which has been on the front lines of the conflict between the EU and Russia over Ukraine, have actually soured somewhat.

No Sizable Change in Ukrainian Approval of European Union, U.S.

While the EU, the U.S. and Germany have backed economic sanctions against Russia over its continued support of pro-Russian separatists, Ukrainians’ lackluster approval of Western leaders may reflect the feeling that Western support only goes so far. The majority of Ukrainians (55%) think it is unlikely that the EU would intervene in the event of armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and about half (49%) think it is unlikely that the U.S. would get involved.

Few Urkrainians Think EU, U.S. Would Intervene in Armed Conflict

Echoing this sense of vulnerability, Ukrainians are somewhat warmer toward NATO than they have been in the past when they, like residents of many other former Soviet countries, were more likely to see NATO as a threat. As controversy swirls over Ukraine’s potential bid to join the alliance, 36% of Ukrainians today view the organization as protection and 20% view it as a threat. Even in the Russian-leaning South and East, 2014 data shows an increase in the percentage of Ukrainians who have come to view NATO as providing protection — although more are still likely to see it as a threat.

More Ukrainians Associate NATO With Protection

Bottom Line

Ukrainians’ hard feelings toward Russia’s leadership are not wholly unexpected, given its alleged actions in Ukraine, and that the situation in the East is still far from being resolved. That Ukrainians’ views of Western leadership have not improved is more surprising — but it suggests that many Ukrainians still feel they are on their own, despite the West’s tough talk and economic sanctions against Russia. This is evident in their belief they would be alone if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ever became an armed one.

Survey Methods

Results are based on face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, conducted Sept. 11-Oct. 17, 2014, in Ukraine. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±3.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Gallup’s polls in Ukraine in 2014 excluded the Crimea region, which is currently considered occupied territory, and some areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts where security was an issue. The excluded areas account for approximately 10% to 13% of Ukraine’s adult population.

Continued at http://www.gallup.com/poll/180110/ukrainian-approval-russia-leadership-dives-almost.aspx


Filed under: Information operations

RUSSIA’S WAR ON INFORMATION

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by 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has nearly completed his purge of independent news media in Russia.  “This is not just a war of information,” says one keen analyst at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.  “It is a war on information.”

The latest casualties are two of the last major sources of independent news in Russia. Last month, Dozhd TV was booted from cable television channels and lost its office space, and a wave of pink slips from its Kremlin-backed owners has decimated the staff Ekho Moskovy, the venerable and respected Russian news radio station.  These attacks come on the heels of new laws restricting foreign ownership and management control of media outlets (which will drive CNN off Russia’s airwaves in January and likely BBC as well), new curbs on advertising that could bankrupt small and independent stations, and ambiguous regulations that allow the Kremlin to shutter websites and even pull the plug on the Internet at a moment’s notice.

U.S. national interests are best served by a Russia that is free, democratic, and an integrated stakeholder in the international community. Yet that vision is anathema to Putin, whose anti-media campaign at home and propaganda offensive abroad are key elements of his 15-year push toward authoritarianism, kleptocracy, and anti-Western policies that today threaten Russia’s neighbors and, by extension, the United States and its  allies.

Moscow’s legal restrictions are paired with potent lies.  Recent fabrications include stories of Ukrainians using a 13-year old boy as an “electronic target” for missiles, assaults on Russian priests, and wild theories—complete with doctored photos—about Western responsibility for the downing of flight MH17.  Economic sanctions imposed after Russian forces moved into Crimea are recast and spun as calculated Western assaults on the Russian people.

Russia’s war on information does not end at Russia’s borders. Russia Today—now simply called RT—is radically expanding operations into 45 languages with a 40 percent increase in funding.  RT’s marketing line is “Question More.”  But the aim isn’t dialogue and debate, it’s to white wash the actions of Putin as former RT anchor Liz Wahl bravely reported as she resigned on air.  Russia also has launched Sputnik – not the satellite, but a global news agency operating in 34 languages, with a robust online presence and the purported aim of providing “an alternative viewpoint on world events.”

The overt Kremlin offensive is supported by legions of online trolls, attacking publications and people.  These media machines manufacture “facts” like widgets and conjure obscure “experts” and “witnesses” for interviews.  The goal is to foment confusion in viewers and feed conspiracy theories so that fiction—especially the Kremlin’s fables—begin to look like fact.

They also seek—as Peter Pomeranzev and Michael Weiss note in their powerful new report, The Menace of Unreality—to undermine Western resolve by simultaneously backing far-left and far-right movements, especially in Europe. “The aim,” they wrote, “is to exacerbate divides and create an echo-chamber of Kremlin support.”

It’s crucial now that the United States and its allies respond. An entire generation born after the collapse of the Soviet Union—the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th Century, according to Putin—is asserting itself in media, politics, business, and the military in Europe, Russia and its neighboring countries. This generation is being subjected to a Kremlin-sponsored propaganda campaign that is slick, relentless, and modern.  The campaign twists news and information about global events, whitewashes the Soviet past, and grossly distorts the policies, history, and intentions of the United States and its Western allies.  While the younger generation in Russia has adopted Western culture, it is much more anti-American and anti-Western compared to older generations.

The universal corollary to freedom of speech is the freedom to listen.  Commercial media in the West should make an investment in reconstituting foreign bureaus and expand abroad.  To complement that effort, and to go where they cannot or will not go, is where U.S. international media outlets—Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Voice of America—come in.  These respected organizations aren’t Cold War leftovers, but part of a solid and sophisticated new strategic effort to counter the Kremlin in Russia, in the former Soviet space, and around the world.  First steps should include a fresh new nightly Russian-language TV news program that is on the air in Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet Union, a raft of new TV programs in Ukraine, and digital offerings that reach millions of Russians and Russian-speakers.

A key difference between the work of RFE/RL and VOA—two of the five media entities of the Broadcasting Board of Governors—and RT, Sputnik, and other Russian organs, is that we promote the freedom to speak, the freedom to listen, and ultimately, the freedom of information.  We encourage audiences to find the truth, to ask critical questions.  Our Internet freedom programs help people access and share the truth and circumvent firewalls erected by regimes that fear their people knowing reality.  We believe in transparency, empowered local media, and in the Freedom of the Press.

The best counter to propaganda is truth and transparency, not more propaganda. Honest, unbiased facts coupled with unimpeded discussion by an informed citizenry is the most powerful weapon against the Kremlin’s disinformation that drains the future from Russia’s people and threatens Russia’s neighbors.

This is not about Russia Today. This is about Russia’s tomorrow.

Matt Armstrong serves as a Governor on the Broadcasting Board of Governors since August 2013 and presently chairs a special Board committee examining the purpose and future of VOA. He is writing a book on the development of U.S. public diplomacy from 1917 to 1948 and previously authored the blog MountainRunner.us.  He can be reached atmarmstrong@bbg.gov and found on Twitter @MountainRunner.

Source: http://warontherocks.com/2014/12/russias-war-on-information/?singlepage=1


Filed under: Information operations, Propaganda, Russia Tagged: #RussiaLies

Humor too good to not pass on

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In light of the CIA torture report, and just in time for Christmas, this came floating around last night.

Where are the presents Santa?

Where are the presents Santa?


Filed under: Information operations

WASHINGTON: ‘ ISLAMIC STATE PROPAGANDA USED TO RECRUIT PROFESSIONALS ‘

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Originally posted on Ace News Services 2014:

#AceNewsServices – WASHINGTON:Dec.16 – As it looks to expand its territorial base across broad swaths of Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State group is recruiting for more than just fighters AP reported.

Recent reports have centred on building communities in parts of Syria and Iraq and to that end they are looking keenly not just at fighters, but a more professional base.     

This includes enticing potential wives and professionals such as doctors, accountants and engineers in its efforts to build a new society.

#ANS2014 

View original


Filed under: Information operations

Recipe: Leave Out the Adjectives, Add a Dash of Reason and Evidence, What Do You Get?

Killing Is Not Enough: Special Operators

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on December 16, 2014 at 10:56 AM

Special Operations night Afghanistan size0-army.mil-80009-2010-07-14-060748

ARLINGTON: “We have, in my view, exquisite capabilities to kill people,” said Lt. Gen. Charles Cleveland. “We need exquisite capabilities to manipulate them.”

Psychological subtlety and the US military don’t always go hand-in-hand. Worldwide, we’ve become better known for drone strikes and Special Operations raids to kill High Value Targets. But that wasn’t enough for the last 13 years of war, according to a RAND study led by well-known special warfare expert Linda Robinson and sponsored by US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC), which Gen. Cleveland heads. In the future, just being great at killing will be even more inadequate against the Islamic State or Putin’s Russia, Cleveland warned. When it comes to the subtler arts of war — from advisor work to propaganda — we’ve tied our hands with our own bureaucracy, processes, and laws.

“We’ve built a great apparatus for terrorism and to some degree we’ve got to be careful that doesn’t create blind spots,” Cleveland said Friday morning during a panel discussion at RAND. “There’s a cottage industry that’s built up around it [counter-terrorism]. You run the risk of basically taking on an entrenched infrastructure” whenever you try to broaden the focus killing and capturing the bad guys, he said, but we have to try.

“I don’t think we understand completely the fight we’re in,” Cleveland said. “This is unlike anything that we’ve confronted in our past.”

Russia, once best known for its lumbering Red Army, has moved down the spectrum of conflict to conduct operations using separatist proxies and deniable “Little Green Men.” Islamic extremists, once best known for suicide bombs, have moved up the conflict spectrum to create a quasi-country, the self-proclaimed Islamic State, that not only governs territory but also boasts forces capable of conducting major military operations to grab more. (Such combinations of conventional and guerrilla tactics are often called “hybrid warfare“). Both the Kremlin and the jihadis have become remarkably savvy with social media and online means of propaganda — waging what the military calls “information war.”

In the US, though, “we’re horrible at ‘influence operations,’” said Cleveland. The US approach is “fractured” among multiple specialties and organizations, he said. Some key elements are in Cleveland’s USASOC — civil affairs, for example, and Military Information Support Operations (MISO), formerly known as psychological operations — while others lie entirely outside — such as cyber and electronic warfare.

DoD photo

To the extent US forces address psychology, propaganda, and politics at all, we tend to do it as an afterthought. “We routinely write a plan for kinetic action, and buried in there is the information operations annex,” said William Wechsler, deputy assistant secretary of Defense for special operations and combating terrorism. “Many times, it should be the opposite…. When you’re dealing with these types of adversaries [e.g. ISIL], that is often the decisive line of operations.”

That’s just one example of how the US ties its own hands with organizations, processes, even laws — indeed, an entire national security culture — designed for a very different kind of warfare. All warfare is a clash of wills, Clausewitz famously said, but Americans tend to fixate on technology and targets, not winning — or intimidating — hearts and minds.

Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. photo

“We cannot confuse physical success — units defeated, objectives taken, targets destroyed — with winning,” saidMaj. Gen. Bill Hix of the Army’s Training And Doctrine Command (TRADOC). We often overlook “the political nature of war,” he said. “No physical action should be pursued if it is not tied to a human objective, an outcome where people make a decision.” Even when unconditional surrender is the goal, victory always meansconvincing the enemy to stop fighting.

The US gained a painful new appreciation of these factors in Afghanistan and Iraq. In both, we had the dominant military role, and in Iraq, we had the legal rights of an occupying power. Today, “the problem is where the military instrument is having to be used in places where we know we’re not going to invade,” such as Yemen, Cleveland said. “That environment that is not war and it is certainly not peace.”

Likewise, local partners are rarely reliable allies, but they aren’t the enemy either. Commanders need to understand the good, bad, and ugly of partners who may be corrupt, inept, or grinding their own political axes on the heads of rival ethnic groups. US intelligence, however, is still geared to figuring out “the enemy,” defined as a clear-cut foe. “We’re trying to get out of this,” said Cleveland, to where “you’re not spying on partners but you’ve got to know what’s going on.”

Finally, in places like Yemen, the US military has to deal with not being in charge — something at odds with its take-charge culture. “We’re riding in the cab, we’re not driving the cab. We’re hoping he takes the route we want,” said Cleveland. “We’re certainly paying the fare.”

But how we pay the fare, to whom, and for what part of the journey is subject to complex legal, policy, and bureaucratic restrictions. Some funding authorities pay for training foreign forces but not, say, building them the rifle range they need to train on. Others pay for training US special operators alongside foreign partners, but only as long as the Americans get at least 51 percent of the benefit. Training authorities generally don’t allow US troops to help the locals plan for real-world missions, let alone go out on them. Where combat advisors are allowed, their roles must be negotiated between the host government and the US country by country, case by case, and there are usually strict restrictions — often imposed by American political leaders fearful of putting US troops in harm’s way.

“Putting people on the ground to do this kind of work is inherently more risky than flying an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and dropping a Hellfire, but we have to learn how to accept that risk, because this at the end of the day is much more often the decisive line of operation,” said Wechsler.

Authorities… are really the key,” said Wechsler, both those set in statute by Congress and those specified by Pentagon policy. The US government handles operations inside a declared war zone (e.g. Iraq) very differently from those outside of one (e.g. Yemen) — even though adversaries like the Islamic State and Russia deliberately blur the traditional lines between peace and war.

“We are shooting behind the target in almost every case,” said Hix, because we have to grind through our methodical, outdated planning process while adversaries innovate. A new Joint Concept does away with the traditional “Phase 0″ through “Phase 5″ system, which conceives the world in terms of before, during, and after major conflicts, Hix told me after the panel. In the new world disorder, “we need those resources and authorities in what we consider to be ‘peace,”” he said. If you don’t have them, he warned, “your enemy’s playing chess while you’re playing checkers.”

Source: http://breakingdefense.com/2014/12/killing-is-not-enough-special-operators/


Filed under: Influence, Information operations

GOP lawmaker: Russian flight incursions ‘ludicrous’

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Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) said the recent near-collision of a Russian military spy plane and a Canada Air passenger jet was an attempted show of force by Moscow that could end up in another civilian airline crash.

“This is obviously the Russians’ attempt to show power and show that they have the teeth of a bear, to try to bully their neighbors, and it’s just — it’s ludicrous,” the Air Force pilot said Monday night on Fox’s “On the Record.”

Russia is already responsible for downing one civilian airliner, Kinzinger said, over Ukraine in July, killing all 283 passengers on board and 15 crew members.”The Russians can basically claim that the Ukrainians shot down the airliner out of Ukraine, but we know that they did it,” he said.

The near-collision took place on Friday, after the Russian spy plane flew over Sweden and Germany with its transponder turned off, rendering it essentially invisible to civilian plane radars. Swedish Air Force scrambled jets to intercept and escort the “intruder,” according to The Aviationist.

The incident was just the latest of a surge of unannounced Russian Air Force missions flying under the radar in the Baltics.

“They are going to go harass these airliners and, some day, there’s going to be something that happens where maybe a Russian jet collides with an airliner again and they have to answer to that,” Kinzinger said.

Kinzinger said the U.S. needed to respond with an increased NATO presence and flights along the Russian border.

“This is going to be important to do. I think when you see jets — Russian jets intercepting airliners, let’s shadow with NATO jets, if we can do that,” he said.

Kinzinger said the provocations were part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to try to rebuild the pieces of the Soviet Union, but said the flights were only “bringing shame to the Russians.”

“You’re not showing us that you’re tough. You’re showing us that you’re reckless, doing this with innocent airline passengers, and getting yourself in a position where you may collide. I’m a pilot. I know one mistake can lead to a collision. It’s very dangerous and reckless, and not a good neighbor,” he said.

Source: http://thehill.com/policy/defense/227260-gop-lawmaker-russian-flight-incursions


Filed under: Information operations

Russia: We Have The Right To Put Nuclear Weapons In Crimea

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Russian soldiers in Crimea

REUTERS/Baz Ratner A Russian soldier hold his weapon at Belbek airport in the Crimea region March 4, 2014.

Russia announced on Monday that it believes it has the full right to deploy nuclear weapons in the recently annexed Crimean peninsula.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the Interfax news agency that since Crimea was now a part of Russia, Moscow had full rights to deploy nuclear weapons into the region.

Lavrov argues that Crimea can be treated just like any other part of Russia and can therefore host nuclear infrastructure. “Now Crimea has become part of a state which possesses such weapons in accordance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” says Lavrov. “In accordance with international law, Russia has every reason to dispose of its nuclear arsenal … to suit its interests and international legal obligations.”

The Russian foreign minister is using “international law” selectively here. After all, only a small handful of countries, including Syria, Venezuela, and Afghanistan, recognize Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. The rest consider Russia’s seizure of the region to be an illegal act of aggression.

Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in March following a widely disputed referendum. The vote was carried out after thousands of Russian troops had already entered the peninsula. The validity of the referendum has been called into question following a 97% approval rate for union with Russia.

In the face of crippling Western sanctions and a crashing ruble, Lavrov likely mentioned Russia’s ability to place nuclear weapons in the contested peninsula as a means of rallying the Russian people around Moscow’s nationalist policies.

“Lavrov has brought up this nuclear weapons issue to demonstrate that the Kremlin considers Crimea such an inalienable part of Russia that it may choose to do with it whatever it wants, including the deployment of nukes,” Alexander Golts, a deputy editor of Yezhednevny Zhurnal and a Russian political expert,told the Los Angeles Times.

Lavrov’s insistence that Russia has the right to move nuclear weapons into Crimea marks only the latest instance in which Russian officials or pro-government public figures have spoken openly at the country’s arsenal. In March, a prominent Russian broadcaster warned that Moscow could turn the US into “radioactive dust.” This was followed by a warning from the Russian Pravda that Moscow had a “nuclear surprise” for the West in November.

Technically, neither the US nor Russia can move strategic nuclear forces without verifying the deployment with the other country due to the 2010 New START treaty, which set a timeline for mutual cuts to the countries’ nuclear stockpiles. Any Russian movement of strategic nuclear weapons into Crimea (long-range, high-yield weapons, as opposed to tactical or battlefield nuclear warheads) without prior notification to the US would result in Russia violating the treaty.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-we-can-put-nuclear-weapons-in-crimea-2014-12#ixzz3M6qq82y8


Filed under: Information operations

Russian Proton Rocket Explodes over Kazkhstan

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Russia’s “Proton” rocket and “Express” satellite launched from Baikonur went “splat” during its third stage boost over Kazakhstan. No reports yet available on casualties and consequences. The effects of the absence of Ukrainian rocket scientists and technology in Russia’s rocket and space program continues to become evident, story here.

This story has not been picked up by Sputnik yet, nor Sputnik US.

Sputnik “tittered with glee” when a US rocket exploded in October 2014.  Antares Rocket Carrying Cygnus Cargo Module Explodes.

You would think that a “news” outlet would carry a story about a Russian event, wouldn’t you?


Filed under: Information operations, Kazakhstan, Russia

Italian ex-MEP arrested, kicked out of Estonia & called Russian ‘agent of influence’

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Giulietto Chiesa, Italian journalist and public figure, former member of the European Parliament, at a news conference at the Rossiya Segodnya International Multimedia Press Center in Moscow (RIA Novosti / Alexander Natruskin)

Okay, riddle me this. I noticed the headline and investigated it, and after seeing that it was an RT article I proceeded with caution. After doing a Google search on “Giulietto Chiesa”, I found a bunch of articles basically saying the same thing, but mostly from Russian propaganda. ITAR-TASS, RT and others.

I get it, Giulietto Chiesa, as a journalist, is very pro-Russian.  His reports are unabashedly pro-Russian to the point of nausea. He’s an Italian pro-Russian Alex Jones.

I know, for a fact, that Russia is making concerted efforts to infiltrate Estonia, so everything here makes sense. But it makes sense from a Western perspective and all the news is coming from Russian sources.

So I am perplexed. I know I am being fed a bunch of bologna, I guess I don’t know enough about Estonia, enough about Giulietto Chiesa, or enough about what the Russians are doing in Estonia.

Can anybody help me out and feed me some information?  I know, somehow, that RT and ITAR-TASS are lying, I just don’t know how or why…


Italian ex-MEP arrested, kicked out of Estonia & called Russian ‘agent of influence’

Published time: December 17, 2014 19:17 

Journalist and former European Parliament member, Giulietto Chiesa of Italy, was detained by the Tallinn police due to his pro-Russian views, which make him a threat to Estonia’s national security, the country’s Foreign Ministry told RT in an e-mail.

Chiesa spent several hours behind bars after being taken into custody from his hotel in center of the Estonian capital Monday.

The police told the Italian politician that he had violated a ban on entering the country imposed on him on December 13.

The 74-year-old politician arrived in the Baltic country to give a speech entitled, “Should Europe be afraid of Russia?” to the members of a local media club.

“Due to the current activities of Mr Giulietto Chiesa, there is a good reason to believe that he is involved in the Russian influence operations and his stay in Estonia may pose threat to Estonia’s security, its public order and public safety,” Mari-Liis Valter, Estonia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, wrote in answer to questions from RT.

The decision to refuse Chiesa entry to Estonia was made by the country’s Interior Ministry, Valter said.

“Every country has the right to impose a ban on entry to a person on the grounds of threat to public order or national security,” she said.

Continued at http://rt.com/news/215339-chiesa-arrest-estonia-italy/


Filed under: Information operations

I Got Caught by Disinformation!

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Last night I published what turned out to be an erroneous report and I am now publishing a public retraction.

Last night I published a blog stating that a Proton rocket launched in Kazakhstan had exploded. I also ragged Sputnik and Sputnik US for not publishing the story.

I was wrong.

Here was the story I originally cited. http://news.liga.net/news/world/4449572-rossiyskaya_raketa_proton_rukhnula_vmeste_so_sputnikom_smi.htm

The story was published at Liga.net.  So I took a look at Liga.net.  On the surface it appears to be an ordinary Ukraine news site.  With the publication of that story, I am now puzzling if that news story was a deliberate attempt at disinformation by someone in Ukraine.

I got the original ‘heads up’ from a European friend who was reliable previously.


Filed under: Information operations

US: Sony Cyberattack Is ‘Serious’ National Security Matter

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A banner for 'The Interview' appears outside a theater in the Hollywood section of Los Angeles, Dec. 17, 2014.

Here is a piece written and published by Voice of America.

Notice, US officials are speaking on “the condition of anonymity”.  In the US you can do that and the US constitution protects the reporter.

Another thing you might notice is that North Korea is being blamed but there is no smoking gun.

According to Dr. Sam Liles, there are three kinds of attribution:

There are three kinds of attribution in cyberspace:

  • Political (usually based on who wins)
  • Technical (looks at the weapons or techniques)
  • Forensic (looks at evidence which can be scientifically validated for legal action)

Please, also note that there have been no details about how anyone KNOWS North Korea is the culprit behind the attack. You’ll hear mention of Hangul (Korean language) code.  You’ll hear similarity to previous attacks on South Korea.  But the person who steps up to the microphone as says “we have proof” is a liar. They’ll think they know, based on a gut feeling, but they will not have forensic evidence. Not this quickly.

There is another kind of attribution, known as intelligence – usually associated with political attribution. Usually it is an experienced analyst who makes a gut call based on decades of experience. That works well behind closed doors and the President may even say “We have intelligence that says…” but it is not forensic evidence or forensic attribution, it will not hold up in court.

Bear this in mind as you read the following.


US: Sony Cyberattack Is ‘Serious’ National Security Matter

A banner for ‘The Interview’ appears outside a theater in the Hollywood section of Los Angeles, Dec. 17, 2014.

U.S. officials are treating a cyberattack on Sony Pictures as a “serious national security matter,” with the National Security Council considering a proportionate response, the White House said Thursday.

Evidence shows the attack against Sony was carried out by a “sophisticated actor,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said. But he declined to blame North Korea, saying the investigation is still progressing.

That country is suspected of orchestrating the hack in retaliation for the Sony film “The Interview,” about a fictional plot to assassinate Pyongyang’s leader, Kim Jong Un. The company on Wednesday cancelled the film’s scheduled December 25 release after the four largest U.S. theater chains said they would not show it. A spokesman said Sony “has no further release plans” for the $44 million comedy, The New York Times reported.

According to media reports, U.S. officials speaking on the condition of anonymity said investigators have connected North Korea to the cyberattack. It is not clear how investigators made the determination.

The massive breach resulted in the leak of tens of thousands of documents and has escalated to threats of terrorist attacks over the film.

A hacker group calling itself Guardians of Peace promised a “bitter fate” to those who attend “The Interview” showings. The group – invoking the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States – warned people to stay away from theaters where the film is playing.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says “there is no credible intelligence to indicate an active plot against movie theaters.”

President Barack Obama also downplayed the threat, saying his “recommendation would be that people go to the movies.”

State Department denial

The film portrays Seth Rogen and James Franco as frustrated television journalists who are recruited by the CIA to assassinate the North Korean leader. In the film’s climactic scene, Kim Jong Un’s head is seen exploding when his helicopter is hit by a missile.

The U.S. State Department has denied media reports it had given its backing to the film. Spokeswoman Jen Psaki said “we’re not in the business of signing off on content of movies or things along those lines.”

Psaki confirmed that top Asia diplomat Daniel Russel had held a routine meeting with Sony executives to discuss foreign policy in Asia.  But she denied the U.S. ambassador on human rights in North Korea, Robert King, had seen the movie.

The online publication Daily Beast alleged it had seen emails indicating at least two U.S. officials watched an unedited version of “The Interview” and had given it their blessing.

Last month’s attack, resulted in the leak confidential Sony data, including the private details of thousands of company employees, former employees and freelancers, as well as several Hollywood stars.

Sony was preparing for a Christmas Day release of the comedy about two journalists recruited by the Central Intelligence Agency to assassinate North Korea’s leader.

In a statement about its cancellation, Sony said it was “deeply saddened at this brazen effort to suppress the distribution of a movie and, in the process, do damage to our company, our employees and the American public. We stand by our filmmakers and their right to free expression and are extremely disappointed by this outcome.”

In an interview late Wednesday with ABC News, Obama called the cyberattack on Sony Pictures “very serious.”

“We’re investigating it. We’re taking it seriously. We’ll be vigilant,” Obama said. “If we see something that we think is serious and credible, we’ll alert the public. But, for now, my recommendation would be that people go to the movies.”

Limited options

Australian National University Korea analyst Leonid Petrov told VOA if the U.S. believes Pyongyang is responsible, its options are limited.

“I don’t think the U.S. government has any leverage to influence North Korea. There’s no negotiations, there’s no diplomatic representation. There’s no trade. There’s basically no exchange, no joint projects.”

The U.S. and its allies have already imposed round after round of economic sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear and missile programs. The sanctions have devastated the North’s economy and left it isolated from the rest of the world, but also resistant to further punishment by it.

Remco Breuker, a professor of Korean studies at the Netherlands’ Leiden University, agrees that the U.S. has few good choices.

“I think the only thing you can do is take a very tough line on what you think should happen. So if North Korea is behind this, the best thing the U.S. could do is make sure this picture does get released one way or the other and protect from further hacking attempts.

Columbia Pictures World Premiere of "The Interview"

Columbia Pictures World Premiere of “The Interview”

Pyongyang condemns movie

Pyongyang has strongly denounced the comedy as an act of terrorism and had called for Sony to cancel the film. It has praised the hacking as a “righteous deed,” while insisting it is not involved in the intrusion.

It is not clear whether the Guardians of Peace group is linked to Pyongyang, which is known to have a capable group of Internet hackers at its disposal. Some suspect the hackers may have been aided by an insider at Sony.

In a series of cyber-intrusions that began in late November, the group has released several rounds of sensitive, internal Sony emails that include everything from financial figures to squabbles between company executives and Hollywood actors.

The leaks also include private employee data and high-quality copies of films yet to be released.

Pyongyang was angered by the film and in June promised “merciless retaliation.” But it has denied involvement in the attack. A North Korean diplomat told VOA earlier this month the accusation was a “fabrication.”

Eriq Gardner, senior editor of The Hollywood Reporter, said the scale of the Sony hacking is unprecedented.

“There have been things that have made Hollywood studios change distribution of movies, but nothing like an attack from a nation-state forcing its hands on a movie that is really just a comedy,” Gardner said.

“… There have been some people who have speculated, maybe jokingly, that this was all just a publicity stunt,” he added. “But really, no matter how much money the film makes from here on out, it will not have been worth it to Sony. This is absolutely terrible for them.”

Financial loss

One estimate had put the film’s potential revenue at up to $100 million. Instead, Doug Stone of the film industry newsletter Box Office Analystbelieves, Sony is set to lose up to $55 million and could opt to release the film at a later date or offer it as a video on demand.

Bruce Bennett, a North Korea analyst for the think tank RAND Corp., said Sony’s decision to cancel the film’s release sets a potentially bad precedent.

“Foreigners who want to stop the release of a film can now follow the example of these hackers. That’s dangerous for the United States,” said Bennett.

And, he added, it is good news for North Korea’s leaders.

“They don’t want this film to get out. They particularly don’t want it to get on DVD and get circulated into North Korea, which a lot of outside DVDs do because of the way it depicts Kim Jong Un fairly accurately, as being ruthless and deceptive and just in ways that don’t coincide with the regime’s propaganda,” Bennett said.

Hollywood reacts

Many in Hollywood took to Twitter to speak out against Sony’s decision to scrap the movie’s release. Comedian Jimmy Kimmel called the move “an un-American act of cowardice that validates terrorist’s actions and sets a terrifying precedent.” Actor Rob Lowe declared it an “utter and complete victory” for the hackers. Steve Carell, whose own film set in North Korea has been canceled, said it was a “sad day for creative expression.”

Source: http://www.voanews.com/content/president-obama-cyber-attack-on-sony-pictures-very-serious/2563923.html


Filed under: Information operations

Rare World War I Propaganda

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by Attila Nagy

Rare World War I Propaganda Shows the Biomech Soldier of 100 Years AgoEXPAND1

One hundred years ago, at the beginning of the 20th century, the first golden age of advertising met humanity’s deadliest conflict: the First World War. The emerging art of graphic design, aided by the invention of lithography and later chromolithography, was suddenly used for propaganda—and the results were terrific: a bold, optimistic, merry and extremely fictive vision of a gory war that killed millions.

The National Széchényi Library (OSZK) in Budapest, Hungary, has a huge and wonderfully rich international collection of paper ephemera from these bloodstained years. These propaganda posters, postcards, photographs were unseen since the end of the war, until now: A small part of OSZK’s collection was published recently in a book titled Picture the Great War, curated, written, and edited by the researchers of the OSZK: Anikó Katona and Anita Szarka.

What we see in these colorful images is the beautiful beginning of a new age of technology: machine guns, tanks, airplanes, poisonous gases, and a multitude of tools developed to kill. As the book says:

The new war situation brought posters to the limelight. This genre, after all, counted as the most modern and effective means of mass communication at the time, only later conceding that position to the radio, and then to television and the internet. Poster propaganda was born in the West Europe of the 1870s. It first flourished during the Art Nouveau period, at the turn of the last century. By the 1910s, it had also gained ground in Hungary as well as practically all other parts of the world. From the outset, posters were designed by creative artists, who saw the excellent opportunity it offered for publicity and earnings. The graphic artists working in the genre increasingly specialized; courses, societies, and periodicals were launched, many poster exhibitions…

Continued at http://gizmodo.com/rare-world-war-i-propaganda-shows-the-biomech-soldier-o-1672191304


Filed under: Information operations

Dmitry Tymchuk: Military updates, 12/18 (9th “Day of Silence”)

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Posted on by

information_resistance_logo_engDmitry Tymchuk, Head of the Center for Military and Political Research, Coordinator of the Information Resistance group, Member of Parliament (People’s Front)
12.18.2014
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine

Operational data from Information Resistance:

Over the past 24 hours, we observed the regrouping of insurgents in the northern districts of Donetsk. ‘Motorola’s’ [leading Russian mercenary Arseny Pavlov], resupplied gang and several units of Russian troops have been put into the front line again. Ammunition is being supplied to the front line by civilian transport. There are several (up to five) roving mortar detachments operating in the area. In addition, terrorists moved a Zu-23-2 anti-aircraft autocannon on a cargo truck towards the settlement of Spartak.

A company tactical group of the Russian Armed Forces (manned with servicemen from two separate motorized rifle brigades of the Southern Military District) moved from Telmanove towards the settlements of Starohnativka and Novolaspa with anartillery group. This is the tactical group which, as reported earlier by IR, lost at least one tank and one artillery system as a result of a confrontation near Hranitne and moved deeper into the combat formations of the Russian-terrorist troops for further mobilization.

A conflict is currently underway inside the LPR [Luhansk People’s Republic] located in the settlement of Krasnodon. The cause of the conflict is the takeover by one of the terrorist groups of a secret base (insurgents call it “a staging warehouse”) with smuggled goods that belong to another armed gang.

The “rightful owners” of the smuggled goods demand the return of the seized property under the threat of tanks (for this purpose, [they] brought two tanks into the city, one of which stalled at the entrance). There are tense negotiations between the parties to the conflict.

A tense situation remains in the vicinity of the settlement of Stanytsia Luhanska. Another reinforcement from Luhansk arrived into the area to the availability of Russian-terrorist troops – up to 130 insurgents, two anti-tank artillery guns MT-12 “Rapier,” 7 armored combat vehicles (including 2 MT-LBs, armored multi-purpose towing vehicles).

Overall, the removal of weapons and enemy personnel in the Luhansk direction has been observed exclusively on the left flank, towards a shallow depth (in the vicinity ofPervomaisk – Stakhanov). In other parts of the front, the Russian-terrorist forces continue to keep the artillery and armored vehicles at the forefront, conducting regular attacks on the frontline positions of Ukrainian troops.

Source: Dmitry Tymchuk FB 

http://maidantranslations.com/2014/12/18/dmitry-tymchuk-military-updates-1218-9th-day-of-silence/


Filed under: Information operations, Russia, Ukraine Tagged: #RussiaLies

Humor is a Cathartic

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North Korea LandThe North Korean government has proposed a joint inquiry into the cyber attack on Sony. No, really!

The Russian government has proposed a joint inquiry with Dutch authorities to figure out who in the world could have possibly shot down MH17.

OJ Simpson has offered to participate in a joint investigation with the LAPD to determine who killed Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman.

Al Sharpton has proposed to sit down with IRS investigators to figure out how the hell he owes 4.5 million in taxes, and devise a repayment schedule.

…sorry, I made that last one up.

ht to fh


Filed under: Information operations

FAUXTRIBUTION?

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Joel Harding:

Very good analysis of the Sony hack and the DPRK announcement!

Originally posted on Krypt3ia:

kim-jong-un

Well here we are… It’s the beginning of the cyber wars my friends. POTUS came out on stage and said that we would have a “proportionate response” to the hacking of Sony and that in fact the US believes that it was in fact Kim Jong Un who was behind this whole thing. Yup, time to muster the cyber troops and attack their infrastructure!

*chortle*

So yeah, let’s take a step back here and ponder the FBI statement today on colonel mustard in the study with the laptop before we go PEW PEW PEW ok?

FBI Statement:

Update on Sony Investigation

Washington, D.C. December 19, 2014
  • FBI National Press Office(202) 324-3691

Today, the FBI would like to provide an update on the status of our investigation into the cyber attack targeting Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE). In late November, SPE confirmed that it was the victim of a cyber attack…

View original 2,615 more words


Filed under: Information operations

Information Warfare? The Case for an Asian Perspective on Information Operations

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Information Warfare? The Case for an Asian Perspective on Information Operations

Alan Chong, PhD iscschong@ntu.edu.sg

Abstract

While information warfare (IW) has been treated by its foremost western proponents as a strategic revolution, the reasons for such a claim are actually rather weak if one considers how non-western approaches to the informational components of warfare have put forth their positions within a multidimensional context of strategy. This article ventures an Asian perspective that can potentially offer a more nuanced contribution to the study of IW. This article will pan out by first critically analyzing the predominantly American interpretation of IW as a set of five characteristics that can be contrasted to an Asian rival. Subsequently, we will elaborate a list of features likely to characterize a generic Asian IW approach, which I will argue, is more appropriately termed information operations (IO). These Asian IO features will be teased out through a reading of Sun Tzu, Mao Zedong, and Vo Nguyen Giap. An Asian IO approach will not distinguish wartime and peacetime applications, and neither will it place a premium on liberal democratic ideology as a basis for information superiority.

http://afs.sagepub.com/content/early/2013/05/09/0095327X13483444


Filed under: Information operations

World’s most advanced hacking spyware let loose

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Symantec says “Regin” is the “World’s most advanced hacking spyware” is loose and attacking Russia and Saudi Arabia telecom companies.

Symantec believes a Western intelligence agency is responsible.

FT.com goes on to say:

“Nothing else comes close to this . . . nothing else we look at compares,” said Orla Cox, director of security response at Symantec, who described Regin as one of the most “extraordinary” pieces of hacking software developed, and probably “months or years in the making”.

Stay tuned…

 


Filed under: Information operations

PressTV: Sony Pictures hacking propaganda effort: Analyst

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Workers remove the poster for “The Interview” from a billboard in Hollywood, California, on December 18, 2014. (Notice, PressTV did not give attribution to the source of the picture).

PressTV, Iran’s propaganda outlet, is accusing Sony of staging their own hack as a method to promote the movie.

What’s more PressTV believes this is an attempt to attack the reputation of North Korea, who otherwise would be of no interest to the average America.

They may be right, but of course Press TV seems to always find a way to spin everything the US does into something evil or part of a conspiracy theory.


The Sony Pictures hacking scenario is an American “propaganda effort” to hype the movie as well as its underlying message that North Korea is an “aggressive” state, a political analyst says.

Speaking to Press TV in a Saturday interview, Don DeBar, activist and radio host, said that the recent “hype” around the hacking of Sony Pictures followed by the alleged leaking of The Interview script must be taken with “a box of salt”.

“What we are talking about here is a film with a second-rate comedic actor about North Korea, which in the United States on its own being released normally, would draw precisely no one to the theaters.”

It would be “generous” to call the entire thing “much ado about nothing” he said, adding, “We don’t even know if there is actually a film or just a trailer.”

“No one in the United States is interested in North Korea on a daily basis unless there is some big deal hyped up by the news,” he said. “Hyping it like this with this event actually made that movie extremely valuable and promoted in a way that would not be available in any other way.”

Continued at http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/12/20/391133/sony-hacking-propaganda-effort/


Filed under: Information operations

Russian Censors Block Protest Website

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Information about protests in Russia is being suppressed by the Russian censorship body, Roskomnadzor, in an attempt to squelch opposition in Russia.

This Russian Facebook page is blocked in Russia now.

If you are in Russia and cannot access the information, here are the details:

by Halya Coynash

Roskomnadzor, the Russian body effectively responsible for censorship, has threatened to block {Ed. – now blocked] the Ukrainian website GORDON if it does not remove information about protests planned in Moscow on Jan 15 in support of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and his brother.  The two are facing long sentences in the latest prosecution widely seen as politically motivated.

Gordon simply informed that such protests were planned, however this was enough for Roskomnadzor to assert that the report contained “calls to mass disturbances, extremist activities and to participation in mass events carried out with infringements of the established order.”

   Screenshot of the material Roskomnadzor is threatening to block the site over, although it only reports plans to hold a protest

The Russian censor’s letter to Gordon received on Dec 20 demands the removal of the material within 24 hours and states that this is on the basis of a demand from Russia’s Prosecutor General’s office.

Olesya Batsman, GORDON’s Chief Editor says that the editorial office is at present consulting lawyers.  She is dismissive of what she calls “the absurdities that the Kremlin dictatorship comes up with out of fear of losing power” but is concerned that readers “accustomed to receiving honest and objective information from us” should not suffer.  She says that the site is read by more than 1 million visitors from Russia.

Opposition activist and anti-corruption blogger Alexei Navalny and his brother Oleg were formally charged with fraud on Oct 29.  This latest of many prosecutions against one of President Vladimir Putin’s main critics alleges embezzlement of up to 26 million roubles from Yves Rocher, a further 4 million from the Multidisciplinary Processing Company, as well as the laundering of 21 million roubles.

Alexei Navalny is under house arrest, his brother on a signed undertaking not to leave the city.  The prosecution is seeking 10 years for Putin’s opponent, 8 years for his brother.  The court is due to issue its sentence on Jan 15 and it is on that day that protests are planned in Moscow and St Petersburg.  By Dec 20 Russian Internet readers were unable to access the Facebook page of the Moscow protest.

This is not the first time that Roskomnadzor has threatened to block foreign media, including Ukraine’s Glavkom and the BBC if they do not remove information about peaceful protests planned in Russia.

In August 2014, the Russian censor threatened to block at very least 17 Russian or Ukrainian media, as well as the BBC, over entirely innocuous material about the planned march in Siberia under the slogan “We’ve had enough of feeding Moscow!”.  The protest was aimed only at calling for greater autonomy enabling the people of Siberia to: introduce benefits and wage supplements for people living in harsh climactic conditions; introduce a regional component to the tax on extracting precious metals, resulting in a fairer divide between local and federal budgets; and exercise their constitutional right to their own authorities who are more independent of the centre, rather than having all decisions taken by the government in Moscow.

That march was banned, as was another equally in line with the Russian Constitution.  Even more repressive measures have been taken against similarly peaceful initiatives in Krasnodar.  Three people who tried to hold a peaceful march in support of ‘federalization for Kuban’ have been placed on Russia’s Federal List of Terrorists and Extremists.  One is presently in custody, two have fled the country (one is expected to receive asylum in Ukraine).

In August a German web hosting provider Hetzner Online AG informed the Ukrainian information agency Glavkom that the latter would be blocked within 24 hours if it didn’t comply with Russia and remove the material.  Glavcom refused, and the enormous publicity forced Hetzner Online to consider its reputation and turn down the Russian prosecutor’s demand.

It seems that the Russian censor is concerned only with blocking information available to the Russian audience regardless of the impression such clumsy attempts at bullying and threats have on the country’s reputation.  On Sept 22 Roskomnadzor again demanded that the Ukrainian site Novy Region remove two items about the march, published in August.  One of the reports suggests that “the Kremlin is in a panic” and describes the Russian authorities’ actions in response to the planned march.  By Sept. 23, the Moscow-based Sova Centre reported, the material could not be accessed in Russia.

Roskomnadzor’s heavy-handed reactions can seem comical in countries accustomed to free access to information, however its activities are increasingly directed at crushing the few independent media sources in Russia.

In late October the independent radio station Ekho Moskvy was warned over ‘extremism’ for its report on Donetsk airport siege.  The formal Roskomnadzor warning accused Ekho Moskvy of ‘extremism’ and claimed that the material in its Oct 29 programme “With our own eyes” [Svoyimi glazami] “justifies military or other crimes”.  Another such warning within the space of a year can be used to close one of the last bastions of critical journalism in Russia.  Examples of the material in question can be found here.  The two Russian journalists denied key themes of Russian propaganda and presented Ukrainian soldiers as defending their country.  This in Roskomnadzor Newspeak was ‘justifying war crimes’.

Source: http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1419202634


Filed under: Information operations
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